Foresight infused Risk Management

Next: New EXposure Trends is another timely report published by FERMA, the Federation of European Risk Management Associations, in May 2025.

The Foresight Committee has developed this report, which explores four interconnected forces that will shape the European risk landscape over the next decade:

♟️ Geopolitical Shifts

🌐 Technological Acceleration

🌱 Climate Change

👥 Human Capital

It is aimed at helping Risk Managers to take a forward-looking approach to anticipate unknown and evolving threats that transcend traditional risk frameworks.

What makes more sense and what is more straightforward than embedding foresight in risk management? One could even question whether risk management can truly be considered effective without incorporating strategic foresight.

Here is a succinct summary of the report:

I. Geopolitical Shifts

A. Risks

1. Multilateralism and Global Governance Challenges

2. EU and US Decoupling

3. The Future of the European Union

4. Deglobalisation, Technological Shifts and Geopolitical Tensions

5. War and Geopolitical Instability

B. Scenarios

1. Friendships differ

2. Atlantic ties

3. Fractured West

4. European autonomy

C. Risk Management Takeaways

1. Expand resilience-planning for extreme scenarios

2. Embed geopolitical risk into strategic decision-making

3. Drive internal dialogue on structural adaptability

II. Technological Acceleration

A. Risks

1. Business Model & Market Disruption

2. AI-Driven Labour Market Disruptions

3. Cybersecurity & AI-Enabled Threats

4. Bias, Ethics & Trust in AI Systems

B. Scenarios

1. Powered by Others

2. Strategic AI Sovereignty

3. Dependent & Declining

4. Sovereign but Stalled

C. Risk Management Takeaways

1. AI as a driver of systemic business disruption

2. AI as a critical supply-chain dependency

3. Labour market impacts as a socio-economic risk

4. Challenges in AI insurability and ethical liability

III. Climate Change

A. Risks

1. Deprioritisation of climate action

2. Climate change as a systemic risk

3. Economic impact and cost distribution

4. Regulatory compliance, policy uncertainty and competitiveness

5. International cooperation

6. Corporate and governmental responsibilities

B. Scenarios

1. MXGA

2. Green Pact Era

3. Better late than even later

4. Climate chaos

C. Risk Management Takeaways

1. Integrate climate risk into core strategy

2. Strengthen crisis and continuity planning

3. Prioritise critical functions

4. Monitor legal and regulatory exposures

5. Plan for business model shifts

IV. Human Capital

A. Risks

1. New work-life symbiosis

2. Longevity and multigenerational teams

3. Task definition and value assessment

4. Pension protection gap

B. Scenarios

1. Patchwork Futures

2. Silver Synergy

3. Legacy Gridlock

4. Human Capital Hunt

C. Risk Management Takeaways

1. Integrate human capital into risk frameworks

2. Scenario plan for workforce disruption

3. Collaborate on strategic workforce planning

4. Assess and monitor pension liabilities

5. Monitor legal and ESG trends in employment

You can find the report on FERMA's website.

→ Or download it directly here.