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Foresight

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Foresight supports strategic decision-making in uncertain environments.

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By exploring multiple plausible futures, organisations can better understand emerging change, test strategic choices, and prepare for disruption.

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Rather than trying to predict the future, foresight helps leaders anticipate change, identify risks early, and spot new opportunities.

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Organisations that practice foresight systematically are often better positioned to detect change early, test strategic assumptions, and improve long-term resilience: The ROI of Strategic Foresight: Picturing the Future Pays Off .

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Why foresight

What foresight does

Foresight begins by identifying signals of change that may affect your organisation, sector, or wider environment.

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These may include:

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  • emerging technologies

  • social and demographic shifts

  • policy and regulatory change

  • market and economic disruption

  • environmental pressures

  • geopolitical developments

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Using horizon-scanning frameworks such as STEEP or PESTLE, these signals are organised and interpreted to reveal the forces shaping the future.

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Each signal can then be assessed in terms of impact, uncertainty, speed of change, and strategic relevance.

From signals to scenarios

The insights gathered through scanning are used to develop multiple plausible scenarios.

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Scenarios help organisations:

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  • reduce blind spots

  • stress-test strategy

  • identify innovation opportunities

  • anticipate risks

  • make more robust long-term decisions

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Instead of relying on a single forecast, leaders gain a broader view of what may lie ahead.

Building
future-ready organisations

 Foresight also strengthens important leadership capabilities, such as

 

  • long-term thinking

  • systems awareness

  • anticipatory decision-making

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This helps organisations become more resilient, proactive, and adaptable.

Methods
for deeper transformation

Some foresight methods also help organisations challenge assumptions and reframe mental models.

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These include:

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  • Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

  • Futures Triangle

  • Three Horizons

  • Futures Wheel

  • Causual Loop Diagrams

  • Cross-impact analysis

  • Delphi

  • Cynefin (for sensemaking)

 

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Who it serves

​Foresight is especially relevant for:

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  • companies and startups

  • governments and public services

  • international institutions

  • professional associations

  • NGOs and foundations

  • think tanks

  • and others

Foresight benefits

  • Creates flexibility in decision-making by moving from a focus on one future to an analysis of alternative futures.
     

  • Moves from the management of reality to the creation of possibilities.
     

  • Moves from the day-to-day operational considerations of management to the longer-term transformative dimensions of leadership.
     

  • Moves from narrow problem-solving approaches to broader and deeper systemic and trans-disciplinarian perspectives and solutions.
     

  • Anticipates emerging issues and weak signals that may derail strategic plans and policies. Through environmental scanning, strategic foresight intends to solve tomorrow’s problems today, and discover opportunities early on.
     

  • Through logic and creative thinking, articulates the first and second order – the long term - consequences of current issues.
     

  • Changes the temporal horizon of planning from the short-term to the medium- and long-term; indeed, strategic foresight provides methods and tools to navigate the three horizons (short, medium, and the long-term).
     

  • Seeks to ensure that the inner stories of organizations, institutions, and nations are linked to systemic strategies. Often, strategies fail not because of an inaccurate assessment of alternative futures but because of a lack of understanding of deep culture.
     

  • Reduces risk by understanding the worldviews of multiple stakeholders. Blind spots - which are always built into the knowledge framework of each person and organization - are addressed by including difference. This makes implementation far easier.
     

  • Moves from risk avoidance to risk reduction to risk management to opportunity and innovation creation.
     

  • Uses the future to change the present.

Framing a Foresight Project

Foresight projects require thoughtful upfront planning and clear framing to enable smooth execution and deliver the intended outcomes. 

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Here’s a concise overview of the key elements to address:

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